Betting on the Home Field

Over the course of the pandemic, I've been slowly convincing my parents to adopt rigorous epistemological standards, mostly around speech, but also with betting. Just this week, my mother and I made a weight loss bet, precommitting to pay $25 to our least favorite politicians if we fail to meet prescribed goals. It's a slow process, and I record this anecdote to demonstrate. 


A scant few minutes ago, my father commented on the lost reputation of pandemic-period darlings, namely Andrew Cuomo and Anthony Fauci. 

Dad: I guarantee that Fauci is going to lose his position in the next twelve months.
Me (ears perking up at the sound of a 1.0 probability): You guarantee?
Dad (knowing how this conversation goes): I have a 99% certainty that Fauci will be fired or leave his position in the next twelve months.
Me: What position?
Dad: Whatever the hell position it is.
Me: Alright, let's bet, 1:99 odds. 
Dad: What? No!
Me: You said you were 99% sure, so you should be willing to bet that.
Dad: Listen, there's the probability, and then there's the odds.
Me: Of course. Quick equation: O = (P/(1-P)), (.99/(1-.99)) = .99/.01 = 99, 1:99 odds. Let's do this, $1 to $99.
Dad: It's not worth it to me to bet for a dollar!
Me: Fine, I'll bet ten.
Dad: No!
Me: A hundred then. If you win you get a hundred, if I win I get $9900.
Dad: Hold on, that's a lot of money. 
Me: Those are the odds, you said you're 99% certain.
Dad: Listen, I'm not going to bet at 1:99. I'm 99% certain, so I'll bet against you 50/50.
Me: *howls in laughter*

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Some Highlighted Passages from Wedemeyer's 'Making Sense of Tantric Buddhism'

Image
I've finally finished reading 'Making Sense of Tantric Buddhism' by Christian Wedemeyer. I started on the book the better part of a year ago, making steady progress until classes resumed. Now with Thanksgiving, I've been able to give it the time it deserved.  This is the first scholarly work on Tantra I've yet read (also the first scholarly work of history and semiology, so there was a period of adjustment there), and this book is a good antidote to misinformation from other sources. Wedemeyer is especially concerned with errors of history and interpretation of Tantra, and he lays out some very, very large errors in the current literature, some of which I had absorbed second-hand through the writing of David Chapman. I'll be writing up a reflection on these disagreements swiftly.  Definition and Elaboration of Tantra, and the Setup for his ultimate Thesis As the term will be used in what follows, Tantric Buddhism comprehends those forms of esoteric Buddhism that...
Read more

EU Does Nothing, News Reports

From Reuters BRUSSELS, July 6 (Reuters) - The European Parliament on Wednesday backed EU rules labelling investments in gas and nuclear power plants as climate-friendly, throwing out an attempt to block the law that has exposed deep rifts between countries over how to fight climate change. That just about gives you the short version. Some points to clear up: this (apparently) isn't a rash movement that is occurring only because of the current energy crisis. The question of whether nuclear energy and gas could be classified as 'green' aka sustainable under the EU taxonomy was put forward back in 2020, with the rules now in the news being put forward back in early February of this year, prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Secondly, the article doesn't claim that the EU plans to declare that nuclear energy or gas are 'green,' rather that investment into nuclear and gas would count as investment in green energy, which doubtless carries all sorts of financial...
Read more

Book Review: Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Image
[Edit: The Book Review Contest has ended, and I particularly recommend you read the gold medalist, Lars Doucet’s review of Progress and Poverty, which I take a look at here ] This was the book review I submitted for Scott Alexander's book review contest. Sadly, it was not a finalist, and now that the runners-up have been released, I reproduce it here. If you enjoy the review, do give it the rating you think it deserves on the Runner-Up Votes , and check out some of the other non-finalists ( Runners-Up A-R , Runners-Up S-W ). Also worth noting, I submitted my own review before Scott published his , and I preregistered this book for review last year when the contest was announced.  I. Prologue Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder , by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, seems to have anticipated my project of reviewing it, and took pains to make it difficult for me. Writing on the book’s structure: Someone in the business of “summarizing” books would have to write four or five separate des...
Read more